What five interest rate rises have done to the cost of winning customers in Australia. Rates are up, customers are more cautious, and it's costing businesses more to win each one.
Research by BFJ Labs, Brisbane. Built from 30 to 41 businesses on Google Ads, 14 to 19 on Meta and 88 to 98 on Google Analytics 4 in each quarter. Data to October 2026. How it works
Brisbane, Q4 2026
21%
Each lead from Google now costs 21% more than a year ago.
Median change in Google Ads cost per lead, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, same businesses (n = 35).
21%more to reach 1,000 people on Google, Q3 2026 on Q3 2025 (n = 35)#cost-to-reach
15%more per click on Facebook and Instagram (n = 14). Reaching 1,000 people is up 2%#costs-risen
−18%of website visits that become a key event (n = 57), while visits are down 1% (n = 92)#leads
Every night Labs pulls each account's data, read-only, from Google Ads, Meta, GA4, Search Console and more.
2. Join
Spend, reach, visits, leads and sales are matched to the same business and the same month, so cost per lead is one number, not six.
3. Compare
Each business is compared with itself a year earlier. The index reports the median, anonymised. No business is identifiable.
AI does the reading. A human checks every figure before it is published.
RBA cash rate target, % · end of each quarter, to 4 Nov 2026 · Source: RBA
Scene 1 · The rate cycle
In 2025, rates came down.
Three cuts took the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.60%.
In 2026, they went up five times.
The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on 4 November, the highest in this cycle. Quarter-end targets shown.
4.85%
Cash rateGoogleMeta
Scene 2 · Paying more to be seen
Being seen costs more on Google.
Cost per 1,000 impressions, same businesses, indexed to Q1 2024 = 100, over the RBA cash rate line.
21% more on Google. Meta is about the same.
Cost to reach 1,000 people, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025. Google n = 35 businesses, Meta n = 14.
+21%+2%
Costs have risen
Google costs have risen. Meta's haven't.
Cost per click, per 1,000 impressions and per lead, charted against the RBA cash rate and inflation. Costs are indexed: every line starts at 100 in Q1 2024.
Google Ads
Meta (Facebook, Instagram)
RBA cash rate and inflation
Show this view as a table
Scene 3 · Still looking
Australians haven't stopped looking.
Visits to the typical business's website are about the same as a year ago (n = 92).
−1%
Median cost per leadMiddle half of businesses
Scene 5 · The squeeze
The cost of a lead on Google keeps climbing.
Median cost per conversion, same businesses, indexed to Q1 2024 = 100.
Each lead from Google now costs 21% more.
Q3 2026 against Q3 2025, same businesses (n = 35). October to date is up 36% (n = 36). Costs rose while fewer clicks converted: that's the squeeze.
+21%
What we do differently
We find the leak, then plug it.
Most reports stop at clicks. We follow each lead back to the ad that made it and the sale it became, so you can see where revenue is leaking.
We count leads and sales, not clicks.Every enquiry, call and booking is tied to the ad behind it.
We read your accounts every night.A rise in cost shows up within a day, not at the next quarterly review.
We spend by profit, not reach.Campaigns that only make noise get cut. The money goes where it earns.
Q3 2026 against Q3 2025 for each channel Labs can report on, with the number of businesses (n) behind each figure. Channel rows show each channel's median share of website visits and the change in percentage points.
Scene 7 · What to do about it
Three things that work in a squeeze.
None of them needs more budget. All of them need you to measure the right thing.
BFJ Digital, Brisbane
Action 1
Count leads, not clicks
If clicks are up and leads are down, the report that says "traffic grew" is hiding the problem. Track enquiries, calls and bookings back to the ad that made them.
Action 2
Answer the question on the page
People are reading your Business Profile and the search results instead of clicking. Put prices, hours, availability and the next step where they're looking.
Action 3
Spend by profit, not by reach
When each Google lead costs 21% more, bid on the products and services that make money. Cut the campaigns that only make noise.
Check your own squeeze
A Revenue Reality Audit shows what each lead really costs you, from your own data. 30 minutes, no obligation.
Built from 30 to 41 businesses on Google Ads, 14 to 19 on Meta and 88 to 98 on Google Analytics 4 in each quarter. Data to October 2026.
Comparison
The same businesses, compared year on year (Q3 2025 against Q3 2026) and, for the cost index, against Q1 2024. Every figure is a median of each business's own change, so one large account can't move it. n is the number of businesses behind each figure; figures with fewer than 5 are not published.
Sources
Google Ads, Meta Ads, Google Analytics 4 and Google Search Console, read by BFJ Labs. All figures are anonymised and aggregated. Businesses with known tracking faults, test accounts and BFJ's own are excluded, and Quantcast results are left out because they aren't comparable.
Cost index
Each business's cost per click, per 1,000 impressions and per conversion, indexed to Q1 2024 = 100; the line is the median across businesses with data in both Q1 2024 and the period. Costs are in the currency each account reports (AUD).
Meta
Clicks are all clicks, not link clicks. Cost per lead isn't reported for Meta: no single result definition applies across businesses.
Key events
Google Analytics 4 key events per session, as each business has set them up.
Cash rate
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target in force at the end of each period, with the 4 November 2026 decision to 4.85%. RBA cash rate target.
Inflation
Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, all groups, eight capital cities, seasonally adjusted, annual change. The latest quarter is September 2026. ABS Consumer Price Index.
Period
Quarterly, annual (2026 is January to October against January to October 2025) and against rate changes (quarters grouped by whether the RBA cut, held or raised the rate). October 2026 is month to date.
Caveats. Key-event tracking varies by business, so those figures are less precise than cost figures. Google now answers more searches on the results page itself, which lowers clicks for reasons unrelated to rates. Meta's costs did not rise like Google's: against Q1 2024, Meta cost per click is lower and cost per 1,000 impressions about the same. Averages by rate decision rest on 3 or 4 quarters each. One rate cycle is not proof of cause: the index shows what moved together, not why.
Cite this
BFJ Digital (2026). The Squeeze Index, Q4 2026 edition. Brisbane: BFJ Labs. Published 5 November 2026. https://bfj.digital/squeeze-index/
Brisbane, Q4 2026